Research Revisions, Pt. 2

Once again, I had originally compiled data from the Twins’ 2009 season, looking at a hitter’s ability to advance and drive in baserunners. However, from the discretion of my friend Steven, I’ve gone back and reworked the data to account for a hitter’s ability to avoid making outs. Today’s post focuses on the success rates of advancing baserunners.

Unsurprisingly, Joe Mauer led the team in AR %, but the guy in second place is definitely someone I wouldn’t have expected: Brian Buscher. The table below is sorted from best to worst in AR % without outs, shown by the yellow column. The white column is the success rate of advancing a baserunner, regardless of if an out was made, and the pale blue column is the difference from the first two (or how often that hitter advanced a baserunner but made an out). In Mauer’s case, the yellow column is read as saying “37.5 % of baserunners were advanced at least one base by Joe Mauer without him hitting into an out.”

It’s not really a wonder that Buscher rated so high. In all situations, he rated tenth on the team, but his low difference in success rates when eliminating his plate appearances that resulted in an out with a runner on base (second lowest, behind Jose Morales) allowed him to jump all the way up to second. Quite a few of the expected players are near the bottom, such as Alexi Casilla, Carlos Gomez, Mike Redmond, etc.

It also wasn’t too surprising to see that on base percentage played a large role in determing a player’s AR % without outs. The blue cell is the best correlation, and the yellow cells are noteworthy correlations.

Like I said, the best ones were some form of on base percentage, and you can also throw in on base plus slugging percentage in there as well. I really think that this makes sense, considering that the more often you get on base with a runner already on base, the better chance you have of advancing that runner, although there are some exceptions (like drawing a walk when there’s a runner on 2nd). Remember though, this only pertains to the 2009 Twins hitters, so the data could be a little different for when I look at the entire league this season, but I don’t expect there to be a significant change.

I’ve been falling into the rut of wrongly predicting when I’ll have my next post up, so all I can say is that sometime in the next week, you’ll get to see Part 3, where I look at the hitters’ average number of bases they advanced a baserunner.


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