Willingham currently has a .271/.384/.551 triple slash this year, and that doesn’t even include his 2 HR game from Tuesday night. Even excluding those 2 HR, this season has easily been Willingham’s best of his career. His .935 OPS in 2012 is .088 higher than his career, and .072 higher than his previous career best in OPS (2009 with Washington). His WAR is already a career best, though a slump definitely could change that.

With all these positives, along with good health, Willingham’s trade value is sky-high. But, the Twins don’t want to trade him, and that is a huge mistake.

The Twins are citing the fear that trading Willingham after signing him to a 3-year contract will chase away future free agents from signing multi-year contracts in Minnesota. I laugh at this argument. When the Twins signed Willingham, his 3-year, $21 million contract was easily the largest contract the Twins ever handed out to a free agent. Yes, they have signed Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Johan Santana, and others to heftier contracts, but Willingham’s contract was both the longest and most expensive free agent contract in Twins franchise history. The closest to topping his contract was Carl Pavano’s 2-year, $16.5 million contract signed prior to the 2011 season.

Clearly, the Twins have never been big players in free agency, so why are they afraid of chasing away mid-level free agents? Besides, if the team is willing to accept that they are rebuilding, signing Willingham-level players would no longer be a priority. Also, the Twins handed out a 2-year contract extension to Ryan Doumit, who originally came to Minnesota on a 1-year, $3 million contract. If Terry Ryan fears other players will shy away from joining the Twins because of a Willingham trade, the he could always counter with Doumit’s extension as an example where they kept a player instead of dealing him.

There is likely another reason that the Twins brass hasn’t shared, but I think is quite relevant. In trading Willingham, the Twins would lose one of their potential big stars for 2013. Next season, the big draw is Joe Mauer and…. who else? Ryan Doumit? Not really. Justin Morneau? He’s no longer the player he was prior to his concussions. Trevor Plouffe? This 2012 outburst has been nice, but we have to be wary that he might just be this year’s 2011 Brent Lillibridge. Keeping Willingham would provide another draw for fans, especially those that are still convinced that Mauer is a waste of $23 million per year.

However, as I mentioned before, this season has been a career year for Willingham. Next season, he’s likely going to regress to something around his career norms. There’s always the risk that he puts up numbers below his averages, or he gets hurt and misses part of the year. The likelihood of him having another year like this one is not good, and the Twins should recognize that and take advantage while they still have the ability.

In trading Willingham, the Twins do sacrifice a bit of the near future, but they could solve many problems that could arise in the next couple years. For one, they have been lacking good starting pitching and middle infielders for a while now. A trade could bring back a prospect or two that could fill either one or both of these holes in 2014. Denard Span might have similar trade value to Willingham right now, but I have to think that teams would find Willingham as the more attractive option of these two players right now.

The Twins have had a history lately of selling players when their trade value is extremely low. Holding on to Willingham after this season would be a colossal mistake, and trading him within the next week while his value has peaked would greatly help the team in 2014 and beyond.

Alexi Casilla on 3B, Jamey Carroll on 2B. Denard Span hits a grounder to Eric Hosmer at first base. Hosmer fires home to Salvador Perez, who chases Casilla all the way back to 3B. However, Carroll also advances to 3B, while Span hustles around and makes it to 2B. Casilla, upon seeing the other two baserunners safe, deliberately runs past 3B. Perez gives up chasing Casilla as he’s now out of the baseline, and he tags Carroll, hoping for a double play. However, after some hesitation, the umpires only calls Casilla out and allows Carroll to stay at 3B. The 4 umpires then have a conversation, and ultimately decide that they made the right call.

As it turns out, they were actually wrong.

Why?

For my explanation, I turn to a slew of rules:

7.01
A runner acquires the right to an unoccupied base when he touches it before he is out. He is then entitled to it until he is put out, or forced to vacate it for another runner legally entitled to that base.

7.03(a)
Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged and the preceding runner is entitled to the base, unless Rule 7.03(b) applies.

7.03(b)
If a runner is forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner and two runners are touching a base to which the following runner is forced, the following runner is entitled to the base and the preceding runner shall be out when tagged or when a fielder possesses the ball and touches the base to which such preceding runner is forced.

Why are these important?

7.01
This means that Casilla was entitled to 3B, while Carroll was entitled to 2B when the play began. Although Carroll ran to 3B and was standing on it before Casilla returned to the base, the second sentence of this rule does not apply, as Carroll was not forced to run to 3B (there was not a baserunner on 1B when the play started). This is why 3B remains Casilla’s base throughout the entire play.

7.03(a)
Remember that Casilla was entitled to 3B. Thus, even though he was off the base and Carroll was standing on it, it was still technically Casilla’s base. This rule states that if both runners were standing on 3B, then Carroll would be tagged out and Casilla would stay on 3B. Obviously, this is not what happened. Casilla ran past 3B while Carroll was standing on it, and Perez tagged Carroll before Casilla was called out for running out of the basepath. Since Carroll was the following runner and was tagged before Casilla was called out, this should have resulted in a double play. However, rule 7.03(a) does have an exception if 7.03(b) comes into play.

7.03(b)
But, this rule does not matter. This only applies if Casilla and Carroll were forced to advance, as in if the bases had been loaded or they had been on 1st and 2nd. Since they started on 2nd and 3rd, there was no runner on 1st and Span was the batter, neither runner was forced to advance. Yes, even when Span ran to 2nd base, because Span himself was not forced to advance.

Summary

This play should have resulted in a double play. Casilla was entitled to 3B, so even though Carroll occupied it, it was Casilla’s base. Carroll was tagged before the umpire called Casilla out for running out of the baseline, and since Carroll was the following runner, Rule 7.03(a) states that Carroll should have been called out. Subsequently, Casilla would have been called out for running out of the baseline, thus how the double play should have been the correct call.

How did you know this?

This play has happened in the past. Also, a similar play was featured in the “What’s The Call” feature of Sports Illustrated for Kids many, many years ago.

As a Twins fan, it may be a bit bittersweet to see this from Dickey, because he was actually a Twin the year prior to joining the New York Mets. But, if you do a little fact-checking, you’ll see that the Twins actually had the dominant Dickey for part of his single season in Minnesota.

Back when the Twins chose to release Dickey, he left with a 4.62 ERA, .286 batting average allowed, and a below-average 5.88 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9. However, I found that Dickey had a string of great outings for the Twins, and the rest of his season was quite poor. Back in Nov. 2009, I wrote about this and found that from May 1 to July 1, Dickey had the following line*: 33.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 27 H, 11 BB, 24 K. For the remainder of the season, this is what he had: 29.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 49 H, 19 BB, 18 K

* In my 2009 blog post, it appears as though I credited Dickey with an additional inning, so this is why my numbers now and then do not match up for IP and ERA.

While the numbers aren’t quite the same as what Dickey is doing now in New York, it does illustrate that for a time, he seemed to have figured out the knuckleball, and that for several months, Twins fans were treated to a similar R.A. Dickey as what Mets fans (and baseball fans in general) are seeing now.

I will have to correct something I said in my post from a couple years ago, though. I had originally said that I thought in order for Dickey to have more success, he’d have to throw the knuckler slower. Well, I guess I was wrong, as Dickey’s gone and thrown his knuckler at whatever speed he chooses. He’s averaging about 77 MPH on it (about 2 MPH harder than when he was with the Twins), but he can dial it up to 81 and will throw it in the 60s as well. In that is likely what has aided his success. While he’s throwing nearly 90% knuckleballs and 10% fastballs, his ability to change speeds with the knuckler makes it seem like he’s actually a 4-pitch pitcher.*

* Plus, I recall Dickey often throwing a knuckler that moved like a slider with the Twins, and there are some people on FanGraphs that claim that he’s learned how to throw a knuckleball that “rises,” or perhaps more accurately, doesn’t drop as much as a spinless ball normally would.

I’m not bitter that Dickey’s enjoyed this level of success after leaving the Twins. Honestly, with only being good for half a season, releasing him seemed like a solid decision. I’m just content to just sit back and watch Dickey keep floating his butterfly ball past hitters.

Now, you can’t take away very much from spring training statistics, but Burnett hadn’t done much in the past two seasons that showed anything different. A career 5.40 ERA in nearly 100 innings coming into this year, with nearly 1 1/2 baserunners per inning was suggesting that Burnett was simply overmatched against major league hitters. Considering his track record in the minors upon becoming a reliever, this was very disappointing to see.

However, Burnett appears to have finally figured it out, as he has yet to give up a run this season in 8 1/3 innings. Additionally, he has walked only one batter thus far, and his WHIP is down to a sparkling 1.08. Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven were quick to point out that Burnett has been featuring a curveball more often this year, though they erroneously stated that it was a new pitch for him.

In actuality, it’s something he’s always had in the majors, but his usage of it has changed. In the past two years, Burnett threw his curveball only about 7% of the time. This season, he’s more than doubled it, as it’s up to 15.5%. Granted, FanGraphs’ Pitch Values says that it’s been a terrible pitch (already worth -5.77 runs) but as viewers on TV can attest, this pitch has a lot of movement. Also, it’s very possible that this pitch has allowed Burnett to set up his fastball and slider, pitches that have rated as average for him in his career.

One of the biggest changes for Burnett has been his control. In his first two seasons, he walked about 4 batters per 9 innings, but in his 6 appearances this year, he’s walked only one batter. I’m not going to credit Burnett’s curveball as helping him improve his control, but like I said before, perhaps throwing it more often has helped set up his other pitches.

It’s still too early to say that Burnett will be a factor in the ‘pen for the rest of the season, but at least right now, he’s given us a glimpse of the pitcher he was supposed to be when he made his debut back in 2010.

—————

Back when I was in high school, my girlfriend at the time made an observation. When we hung out together, I was… well, me. A little quiet, a little reserved, sometimes if I was in the right mood, I could become more excitable.

But on the baseball field, I was a completely different person. I was loud. I joked around with everyone. I had a smile on my face practically the entire time. I’d come home from games and rave about the stupid things my teammates did on the field, but I still found them hilarious. Example: One of our outfielders needed to take a leak but didn’t want to run to the Port-a-Potty behind home plate. So, he had the rest of us create a blockade between him and the coaches gathering equipment in the dugout so he could piss in left-center field. Thank god no one had to make any diving catches in that area that day.

Kevin Millar turned heads when he described one of his Red Sox teams as being a bunch of idiots. Well, that’s how my high school team was, too, and yet I loved it. My varsity head coach was awesome. A man that knew his stuff. Yes, he told us that in order to be a good hitter, we had to master bunting. But he also pointed out that getting a walk was good, as it meant that you avoided that likely chance of hitting yourself into an out instead. He was a guy that you could have fun with, you respected, and you appreciated to have as a coach.

I barely saw game action during my lone varsity season. Hell, I was outhit by our Czech foreign exchange student that had never played baseball before coming to the States (he singled to center in his lone plate appearance, I walked in mine). Nevertheless, even despite our team’s inconsistent play and my dugout tirade that created my only plate appearance that year, I enjoyed it.

When I got to college, I decided I was going to give NCAA baseball a shot. Being in a Division 3 school, I knew that I’d have the slightest of chances of making it, but that was still better than if I had chosen to go to the U of M. Unfortunately, as soon as I met the head coach, I knew I couldn’t play for him.

He was like a Dementor. No, he didn’t have a black hood obscuring his face, but when he walked into the room and started speaking, you just had the joy sucked out of you. He was no-nonsense, didn’t even crack a smile the whole first meeting. I felt that if I whispered even one word to my roommate in that meeting, Coach would have forced the next words out of my mouth to be, “Zero fun, sir.” It’s a shame that my baseball-playing career has been put on indefinite hiatus because of a man I knew I wouldn’t like, but at least I left on my own terms.

—————

To fill the void, I turned to blogging about a year and a half later. I was already a big baseball fan, but this, combined with sabermetrics, caused my love for the game to increase tenfold once again. However, a bit of that void always returns once the offseason hits. I adopted the offseason timeline my college friend, former fellow usher, and now-MLB Network employee Craig had in place. November is the Metrodome field crawl for Twins employees. December is the Holiday Party. January is TwinsFest. Finally, February is when spring training begins, signaling the unofficial return of (somewhat) meaningful baseball to our lives.

From a quick Google search, I’m amazed no one has parodied Green Day’s “Wake Me When September Ends” into “Wake Me When Spring Training Ends” yet, considering my friend Laura and I once casually mentioned it back in high school about 6 years ago. Maybe that’s something I should do for next season, and I’ll put as much of my heart and soul into it as I did when I made “Outdoor Subsidy.” I can’t think of anything else that could appropriately describe how I feel about regular season baseball returning more than that, and it’s a shame it doesn’t even exist yet.

—————

These four Opening Days have been painful. The A’s and Mariners technically kicked off the season in Japan, but it just didn’t feel right. It was too early. It wasn’t even in North America. It was with two teams most casual baseball fans don’t really care about.

We had the Miami Marlins show off their monstrosity of a ballpark on Wednesday against the St. Louis Cardinals. I watched the game, and I had no idea what I was looking at. It almost felt like Jeffrey Loria decided to bring back “Turn Ahead The Clock.” News flash: It was ugly back when it was done prior to Y2K, and it’s still ugly now. Plus, since when were one-game series legal? I didn’t see any other teams getting this favor done when they opened up their new stadium.

Thursday brought us a few more games, and it was even more agonizing as a Twins fan. Three teams have already played two games that count. The Twins and 12 others don’t even have one yet. That sounds fair.

Last year sucked, we all know that. But 2012 is a new year, and with that brings new hope. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are gone, but they’ve been adequately replaced by Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit. Joe Nathan is gone? Well, there’s Jared Burton, who very well could provide 80% of the production at around 3% of the cost. That revolving door at shortstop has been replaced by Jamey Carroll. Sure, he’s old and creaky, but he’ll get the job done.

Many people like holding signs at games that say, “Believe.” To that, I say flip those signs over and write on the back, “I Never Doubted,” for the regular season is finally here. This team is practically guaranteed to be better this year, so sit back, grab a cold drink, kick up your feet, and let the voices of Dick ‘n’ Bert enter your living room.

The road to the playoffs starts now.

Well, it looks like one of the Twins brass doesn’t agree. General Manager Terry Ryan stated that the recent demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka “has nothing to do with Dozier,” but that could easily be interpreted to mean “Nishioka’s only shot of starting the season with us was as a utility infielder, and Dozier’s not going to fill that role for us.”

There seems to be some rumblings that Dozier is not guaranteed of being sent to the minor leagues, as I first thought. For one, he’s now survived two sets of cuts from spring training, despite the fact that he’s never seen any action in Triple-A.* Two, even with the offseason signing of Jamey Carroll to play shortstop, there’s still a way to fit Dozier into the picture.

* Though the same can be said of Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee, and neither of them are likely to be on the major league roster at the beginning of the season, either.

Carroll and projected starting second baseman Alexi Casilla both have the ability to play the middle infield positions. The same is true for Dozier, though there are some questions on his range at shortstop. Additionally, the removal of Nishioka means the Twins do not have a really good backup infield option for the bench. It could be Luke Hughes, but the Twins won’t put him at shortstop unless it’s an emergency. It might be Trevor Plouffe, but the Twins appear to want him to become a full-time outfielder.

Out of Carroll, Casilla, and Dozier, it’s clear that Dozier will not be the utility infielder. While I won’t place him on a pedestal like Tom Powers, I do think he has a chance of being a Danny Valencia-esque player at shortstop (read: someone that won’t be a star, but can hold down the fort, possibly all the way through his arbitration years). However, Carroll and Casilla are good fits for this role. Certainly Carroll isn’t preferable because of his contract, but that’s been his role for his whole career. Meanwhile, Casilla is the cheaper option, and I don’t think anyone could really argue that moving him to backing up the infield will hurt the team.

This means that we have several possibilities that could play out if Dozier indeed breaks camp with the major league club. He could be the starting shortstop, with either Casilla or Carroll manning second while the other is on the bench, or Dozier is at second base with the same arrangement for Carroll at shortstop and Casilla on the bench or vice-versa. If this was to happen, I’d hope for Dozier to be at shortstop (provided his defense has been proven to be adequate) with Carroll at second base.

But will this happen? I still think no. Just like with Parmelee and Benson, I feel that Dozier is destined for Triple-A. The Twins may be talking him up right now, but his lack of experience above Double-A is currently a red flag. Sure, there have been people promoted directly to the big leagues from Double-A that stuck, but those are typically top prospects, not fringe guys like Dozier. While there may be hints from the front office that he has a chance of joining the Twins in Baltimore to kick off the season, I still feel it won’t happen. That F that I gave him two weeks ago is going to stick.

At first glance, I wasn’t too happy with this contract. Handing out long-term deals to relievers is a very risky business, as it’s rare for relievers (actually pitchers in general) to stay healthy and productive for more than a couple years in a row. Obviously there are your outliers, but those are typically few and far between.

The Twins obviously liked what they saw out of Perkins last season, and they jumped on a new contract before he could put together another good year and potentially make himself even more expensive. For example, last season netted him more than twice as much money ($1.55 million) this season as what he made last season ($0.7 million).

In signing him to this extension, an important decision for the future has been brought to light: Does this make Perkins the closer of the future? On one hand, the Twins can say no, and either stick with Matt Capps or find someone else to step in as the closer. An issue with this is that closers are typically expensive to acquire, and there’s not really anyone other than Perkins that appears to be closer material.

On the other hand, making Perkins the closer could lower future costs in the bullpen. With his salary set for the next few years (even with his games finished clause), the Twins can look for cheaper relievers to fill out a ‘pen from year to year. However, this also takes their best reliever out of the “relief ace” role, where his abilities would normally be maximized. Think about it, would you rather have your best guy out of the bullpen coming in when there’s two on, nobody out in the 7th inning where you have a one run lead, or bring him in the 9th inning, nobody out, also with a one run lead? The former is higher leverage and thus should have your best reliever enter the ballgame.

To take a side on this, well, I don’t know if I fully agree one way or the other on what Perkins should be in the future, simply because of the cons. I suppose that if I was forced to choose, I’d go with making him a closer, because that would theoretically keep the bullpen rather cheap over the next few years.

Last season, the Twins were anything but successful as they lost 99 games. While the departures of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Joe Nathan were eventually filled by the signings of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, and Joel Zumaya (who is now out with a torn UCL), just about everyone on the roster struggled, which meant that plenty of roster battles would be brewing this spring. Sure enough, the Twins invited 66 players to spring training this year, showing that the coaching staff wants to get a good look at plenty of players.

Below I’ve highlighted four non-roster invitees that Twins fans are, or should be enamored with this spring. I know it’s early, but I’m willing to bet we already know their likelihood of making the Opening Day roster. Keep in mind that right now, there will be only one 40-man roster spot available once Joel Zumaya is placed on the 60-day DL, unless someone else is removed, *cough* Jeff Gray.

J.R. Towles – B-

Is there really any way that Towles doesn’t make the roster in lieu of Drew Butera? I get the feeling that as long as Towles shows that he’s capable defensively and can hit better than Butera, the third catcher’s spot on the 25-man roster is his. I mean, there are people within the Twins organization that are openly (albeit anonymously) hoping that he does beat out Butera.

It’s too bad because Butera’s a great guy, but baseball is a business and you succeed with players that give you the best chance to win, not with good people that try hard. Even though Towles’ major league career has been only marginally better than Butera’s, at least his minor league numbers suggest he could be an asset if he figures everything out. It really should not be hard to beat out Butera unless the Twins are convinced that his defense is so good that it outweighs the hitters’ difference in potential offensive firepower.

Note: By the way, while typing up this review, I’ve changed Towles’ grade from a B+ to a B to a B-. I think it’s showing that even though he has a good chance of making it, I feel that the Twins are so irrationally in love with Butera’s defense that it will take a good effort to displace him. I guess my optimism of Towles overtaking Butera has waned with each passing minute.

Jared Burton – C+

I’ve been pairing Burton with fellow NRI pitcher Jason Bulger, but the difference between them is that Burton’s actually had success in the majors whereas Bulger has had one decent year.* Burton’s kind of followed the Joel Zumaya track of pitching, where he burst onto the scene as a good setup reliever in his first two seasons, only to have the last couple seasons ruined by injuries.

* The same year Jason Kubel hit a grand slam home run off of him to complete the cycle. Just an odd tidbit I had to share. 

Possessing a good cutter and a “split-change,” (his description of the pitch), Burton’s chances of making the Opening Day roster increased when Zumaya was diagnosed with his torn UCL. However, by my count he’s also competing with about 10 other pitchers for two or three bullpen spots.

Here’s who I think is guaranteed of being in the Opening Day ‘pen: Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Alex Burnett

Here’s who I think has a realistic chance for those two remaining spots: Terry Doyle, Jeff Gray, Matt Maloney, Jeff Manship, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop, Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Phil Dumatrait, Esmerling Vasquez, Carlos Gutierrez

That’s a lot of guys to compete against, so while I do think Burton has a good chance of making it, I could also easily see some combination of Doyle, Oliveros, and Waldrop winning those last two spots instead.

Sean Burroughs – D-

Look, his comeback story is great, but I just don’t think Burroughs has what it takes to earn a bench spot. There was early talk about him challenging Danny Valencia for the starting third base job, but Valencia has quickly earned positive reviews on his improved defense. Burroughs doesn’t feature much power, and really his only upside would be as a pinch-hitter and backup at third base. But then you have to realize that the bench will already have a catcher, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes (both out of options), and either Tsuyoshi Nishioka or Rene Tosoni. If he accepts a minor league assignment, I could see him being called up at some point this season if/when injuries strike, but I just don’t think he has what it takes to crack the Opening Day roster.

Brian Dozier – F

Dozier is probably the guy most casual Twins fans are familiar with because he was in the Twins system last season and Gardy was calling for him to be promoted, but there’s just not any room for him. Jamey Carroll was signed to be the starting shortstop, and Dozier would only be in the major leagues if he would have regular playing time. Even then, you have to imagine that Alexi Casilla would be ahead of him on the depth chart, especially since Dozier has no experience above Double-A. Barring injury, the BullDozier will be in the majors at some point this year, but it won’t be on April 6th.