If you haven’t already, I’d suggest reading the introduction to this series before continuing below with my 2011 predictions for the pitching staff. All statistics mentioned were taken from FanGraphs. If you have any complaints with these predictions, you are more than welcome to share your opinions in the comments below. However, before you complain about my predictions, please note that this is the first time I’ve ever seriously done predictions before, and many of the numbers are simply educated guesses. Also, the luck stats I’m looking at are mainly being used to predict that pitcher’s 2011 ERA and batting average allowed; everything else is as I just said, an educated guess.
Typically, luck statistics for pitchers include batting average on balls in play (BABIP), home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), line drive rate (LD%), and the percentage of runners stranded on base (LOB%). Other statistics may also be used when evaluating a pitcher here, even if they are not mentioned in that player’s summary. Additionally, I’m willing to bet some of you will dislike the fact that I’m predicting a player’s win/loss record with these stats. To be honest, the records I’m predicting are somewhat based off the player’s ERA, but anything could happen. We may see someone repeat Phil Hughes’ 2010 (18-8) or Kevin Millwood’s 2010 (4-16).